Something Wicked This Way Comes

A year ago TIME Magazine was asking what happens if we leave Afghanistan. At the time there were many people upset at the cover image. I blogged about it here. Behind every attempt to rationalize why we just simply can't keep our forces in play in this unforgiving land, is the haunting memory of what filled the void when the Soviets left Afghanistan two decades ago. A devastating civil war, a brutal theocracy taking control of most of the country, and a regime that became the state sponsor of a terrorist group that eventually gave us 9/11. The humanitarian crisis that existed in Afghanistan was no secret, nor is it just pessimism to expect some return of the Taliban and its brutality as we leave. In a recent article the BBC doesn't ask what if, but shows what has happened in an area where we've withdrawn:

The US pulled out of parts of Kunar last year, beginning the withdrawal process. What has happened in the province since then makes for grim reading.

The new roads are now pock-marked with craters left by militants who plant bombs targeting Western and Afghan forces.

The province is becoming more dangerous - UK aid worker Linda Norgrove was kidnapped on one of the main roads in Kunar last year and in the past few months an Afghan translator was also abducted from exactly the same area.

The stretch between Chaw Kay and Nur Gal has become a favourite haunt of militants seeking targets.

The Taliban now roam at will in some rural districts, ruling villages by night while the government exerts nominal power by day. Taliban radio stations broadcast daily and hypnotic chants exhorting jihad (holy war) dominate Kunar's airwaves.

...

"It is Taliban across the river," one elder said. "They are lying in wait. At the first opportunity, they will descend on the village to take their revenge," he said, refusing to give his name for fear of retribution.

At this point we may just be talking about the inevitable. The American public has lost the stomach to endure much more of this never ending tit-for-tat stalemate we've run into at the Pakistan border, possibly more so since the incursion that killed Osama bin Laden and left al Qaeda an organizational and perhaps toothless mess. But what we've learned from our once reluctant ally of Pakistan is that the real power players were never Musharraf or the elected government that came after him, but the military and ISI upper echelons. The same allies of the Taliban and supporters of terrorism as a tool of foreign relations are in play, orchestrating everything from the Mumbai attacks, to looking the other way in the hunt for Afghan Taliban and al Qaeda leaders, to possible direct support... all while crying foul at any attempt by the US to bypass their obstruction.

The sad fact is we chased the war to the Pakistani border, where it languished while we failed to come up with a way to complete it. As we leave the same ideological forces that pushed into the vacuum of post-Soviet Afghanistan will be there to do so again. The humanitarian crisis that results will only be tempered by how much or how long the Afghan forces who oppose the Taliban resurgence can hold out. If there are any good options, the window for them has almost certainly passed. If there are options to minimize the horror that looms on the horizon, I'm all ears... but aren't we all?


Background:

Since the 2008 election, when almost every candidate with the exception of some fringe candidates who did not get much public support, was campaigning on 'winning' in Afghanistan, it's become an unintentional yearly habit to note how our war effort there has only continued to become more bleak (as if it wasn't bleak enough with Bush at the helm).

2010: Losing Afghanistan - "For me the situation is no longer just dire. We're losing Afghanistan. The problems are hitting a critical mass that there may be no coming back from. It breaks my fucking heart."

2009: America's Slow Surrender - "Unfortunately it currently seems likely that this war is going to be treated like it is generally presented to the public, as a television show that has jumped the shark. They're bored with it and they just want to change the channel. The ramifications of which we'll unfortunately not be able to just click off."