Sunday, September 07, 2008

Tied Up: 48-48%

In the first tracking poll that has all data from after Palin's debut speech to the RNC... here's the highlights:

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%. Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).


McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.

McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women

From the last few days of polling it appears that McCain has:

  • Effectively removed Obama's convention bounce.

  • Tied up the national polling again.

  • Cut Obama's lead among women more than half.

  • Successfully put Obama on par among voters with McCain's VP pick, most importantly among unaffiliated voters.

  • McCain/Palin both have favorable/unfavorable ratings better than Obama, and far better than his VP pick.

  • Left the impression among many on both sides of the aisle that McCain is out-maneuvering Obama's campaign.

  • Reduced Obama to desperation moves: claiming his campaign should be counted as relevant experience to be president... and more recently, having to crawl back to Hillary to stump for him to help bring back the woman vote.

Meanwhile the generic party ballot, who Obama should otherwise be exceeding given the political environment this year with unpopular incumbent and incumbent party continues to blow him out of the water. But even that has shrunk from the double digit averages.

The Electoral patterns and overall environment still have the odds on an Obama victory in November... but the odds have shrunk according to almost all trading bets. And though being tied up isn't any assurance of victory for McCain by a long shot, it certainly provides hope in what was almost certainly a hopeless situation.

The battle over the economic voters will rage on, and McCain's attempts to make energy the strongest focus will be an uphill battle on that front as Obama holds a commanding lead with lousy economic news surely on the horizon.

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