Monday, May 05, 2008

Hillary Doomed?

For a while now the pundits have been pointing out that Hillary almost sure to lose without Florida or Michigan counting.

CNN has a nice visual representation of why on their website right now with a Delegate Calculator.

Here's a sample screen shot of if Hillary won by 10 point margins in the remaining races (snow ball chance in hell) and with the super-delegate counter adjusted to deny Obama a majority in the first round voting:



It'd take roughly 63% of the super-delegates to offset Obama's lead, even with double digit wins in the remaining races. To actually win you'd have to adjust that up to 70% of the super-delegates (pretty unlikely since they've been trending more to Obama's side lately).

These odds make her continued fighting seem hopeless on the surface and it's fueling all sorts of theories on how exactly Hillary has calculated a possible victory, including what some are referring to a "nuclear option" to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. From the Huffington Post:

With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month -- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.

Republicans hoping for chaos would likely not be disappointed by such a move. If Hillary turns her perceived renewed momentum into a solid streak it'll be more and more likely for some '68 style convention protests/riots to be the big news a few months. If Obama effectively shuts her down, not even Michigan and Florida will be able to save her.

Grab your popcorn!

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